Spread: Pacers (-1.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (54%) · 76ers at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Pacers26¢76ers74¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 54%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$189.37

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 74.5¢

+26% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers26%

76ers75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,225

Combined PnL+$41.77

Pacers6 traders

Total Value$517.48

Total Shares1,278

Combined PnL+$147.6

76ers — 54%Pacers — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPacers 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 100076ers 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	76ersavg 58.7¢	$832.91	$851.98	+$19.07	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Pacersavg 26¢	$125.19	$202.23	+$77.04	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
RN1	76ersavg 59.4¢	$181.03	$192.51	+$11.48	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pacersavg 25¢	$92.35	$155.15	+$62.8	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 59¢	$118	$123	+$5	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
38 38791873984189	76ersavg 58.6¢	$105.7	$110.98	+$5.28	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Pacersavg 40¢	$60	$66	+$6	48% 643-686 (1329)
FL Flaznorp<$100	76ersavg 74¢	$54.72	$53.98	-$0.74	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 24¢	$29.53	$51.68	+$22.15	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Pacersavg 43¢	$58.05	$34.43	-$23.63	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 58.7¢	$42.76	$31.51	+$1.41	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Pacersavg 25¢	$4.76	$8	+$3.24	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	76ersavg 51¢	$2.81	$3.09	+$0.28	50% 2863-2911 (5774)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

76ers

Invested

$832.91

Value

$851.98

PnL

+$19.07

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

MadridTimeCTR

Pacers

Invested

$125.19

Value

$202.23

PnL

+$77.04

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$181.03

Value

$192.51

PnL

+$11.48

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

LightParadoxCTR

Pacers

Invested

$92.35

Value

$155.15

PnL

+$62.8

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$118

Value

$123

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

38791873984189

76ers

Invested

$105.7

Value

$110.98

PnL

+$5.28

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$60

Value

$66

PnL

+$6

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

Flaznorp<$100

76ers

Invested

$54.72

Value

$53.98

PnL

-$0.74

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$29.53

Value

$51.68

PnL

+$22.15

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$58.05

Value

$34.43

PnL

-$23.63

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$42.76

Value

$31.51

PnL

+$1.41

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

suntoriCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$4.76

Value

PnL

+$3.24

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.81

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPacers 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 100076ers 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.