Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (40%) · Pacers at 69¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 5

Grizzlies32¢Pacers68¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

-$684.36

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 68.5¢

+19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

6 of 15 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies32%

Pacers69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers6 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares11,306

Combined PnL-$314.64

Grizzlies9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,840

Combined PnL-$369.72

Pacers — 40%Grizzlies — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrizzlies 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pacersavg 54.9¢	$4.4K	$5.4K	+$929.23	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 54.9¢	$3.1K	$4.0K	+$958.6
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$29.37
LU luckycat888888	Pacersavg 58¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$339.3	49% 84-86 (170)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Pacersavg 57.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$72.58	47% 502-573 (1075)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$880	$920	-$320	44% 109-137 (246)
HI hi774cCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$895.82	$858.49	-$37.33	50% 4971-4900 (9871)
VeryLucky888CTR	Grizzliesavg 47.5¢	$478.2	$332.19	-$18.85	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Grizzliesavg 44.2¢	$311.3	$323.82	+$12.52	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$310.4	$302.66	-$7.74	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Grizzliesavg 45.5¢	$221.66	$224.22	+$2.57	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$176	$184	+$8	51% 1831-1762 (3593)
RN1	Pacersavg 55¢	$137.5	$180	+$42.5	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
nigiri99	Pacersavg 58.2¢	$100.8	$155.52	+$54.72	46% 8424-9994 (18418)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$25.56	$25.56	-$8.61	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
38 38791873984189<$100	Pacersavg 51¢	$9.11	$12.86	+$0.09	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 47.7¢	$10.69	$9.62	-$0.29	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pacersavg 53¢	$2.65	$3.6	-$0.08	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$4,442.72

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$929.23

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Both legs:

Pacers$3,074.5954.9¢+$958.6

Grizzlies$1,368.1347¢-$29.37

luckycat888888

Pacers

Invested

$4,929.29

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$339.3

Record

49%

84-86 (170)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Pacers

Invested

$1,285.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$72.58

Record

47%

502-573 (1075)

DolphinBallerCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$880

Value

$920

PnL

-$320

Record

44%

109-137 (246)

hi774cCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$895.82

Value

$858.49

PnL

-$37.33

Record

50%

4971-4900 (9871)

VeryLucky888CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$478.2

Value

$332.19

PnL

-$18.85

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

FlaznorpCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$311.3

Value

$323.82

PnL

+$12.52

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$310.4

Value

$302.66

PnL

-$7.74

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

HerdoniaCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$221.66

Value

$224.22

PnL

+$2.57

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$176

Value

$184

PnL

+$8

Record

51%

1831-1762 (3593)

RN1

Pacers

Invested

$137.5

Value

$180

PnL

+$42.5

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

nigiri99

Pacers

Invested

$100.8

Value

$155.52

PnL

+$54.72

Record

46%

8424-9994 (18418)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$25.56

Value

$25.56

PnL

-$8.61

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

38791873984189<$100

Pacers

Invested

$9.11

Value

$12.86

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$10.69

Value

$9.62

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

6 of 15 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrizzlies 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.