Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 50¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$111.44

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 49.5¢

-19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,547

Combined PnL+$315.37

Under6 traders

Total Value$993.94

Total Shares2,018

Combined PnL-$203.93

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 45.9¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$91.33	53% 330-294 (624)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$84.09
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.9¢	$640.22	$558.41	-$175.42
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 40.4¢	$647.57	$896.03	+$248.46	28% 121-308 (429)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$591	$530.5	-$60.5	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.3¢	$387	$304.5	-$82.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$204	$226	+$22
RN1CTR	Underavg 70.7¢	$708.37	$506.21	-$202.16	52% 287-270 (557)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 52.7¢	$363.53	$362.72	-$0.81	53% 214-189 (403)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 60¢	$238.74	$190.03	-$25.43	49% 427-449 (876)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$100.14	$98.01	-$2.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$109.33	$92.02	-$23.3
AN Anon455	Overavg 26¢	$91.26	$147.42	+$56.16	48% 86-95 (181)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 52.5¢	$129.73	$139.55	+$9.82	26% 55-158 (213)
LI Limousin	Overavg 39¢	$299	$125.58	+$8.97	26% 127-363 (490)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$67.22	$73.8	+$6.58	26% 121-344 (465)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 57¢	$61.01	$52.96	-$8.05	22% 84-295 (379)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 53.8¢	$75.79	$24.75	-$5.96	49% 193-198 (391)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$13.42	$13.71	+$0.29	57% 104-80 (184)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 80¢	$14.62	$12.75	-$1.87	57% 139-106 (245)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,961.32

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$91.33

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

Both legs:

Over$1,061.7645.9¢+$84.09

Under$640.2257.9¢-$175.42

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$647.57

Value

$896.03

PnL

+$248.46

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$591

Value

$530.5

PnL

-$60.5

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Invested

$708.37

Value

$506.21

PnL

-$202.16

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$363.53

Value

$362.72

PnL

-$0.81

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$238.74

Value

$190.03

PnL

-$25.43

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Both legs:

Over$100.1450.6¢-$2.13

Under$109.3360¢-$23.3

Anon455

Over

Invested

$91.26

Value

$147.42

PnL

+$56.16

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$129.73

Value

$139.55

PnL

+$9.82

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$299

Value

$125.58

PnL

+$8.97

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.22

Value

$73.8

PnL

+$6.58

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$61.01

Value

$52.96

PnL

-$8.05

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.79

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$5.96

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.42

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$0.29

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.62

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$1.87

Record

57%

139-106 (245)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.