Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 53¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 10

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$54.59

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 52.5¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 15 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,594

Combined PnL-$142.38

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,673

Combined PnL+$196.97

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 58.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$130.22	52% 190-177 (367)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.7¢	$1.0K	$950.26	-$63.77
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.5¢	$336.36	$530.35	+$193.99
AN Anon455	Underavg 58.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$86.84	48% 85-92 (177)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 70.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$56.34	54% 319-276 (595)
└ Under leg	Underavg 70.9¢	$719.41	$785.96	+$66.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.9¢	$389.39	$266.5	-$122.89
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 38¢	$383.33	$479.28	+$95.95	57% 104-80 (184)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$448.32	$461.77	+$13.45	31% 118-262 (380)
RN1	Underavg 57.3¢	$414.41	$372.31	-$42.1	53% 274-241 (515)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 44.6¢	$295.28	$314.36	+$19.08	28% 119-313 (432)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 39.7¢	$258.5	$309.19	+$50.69	28% 118-301 (419)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 46¢	$268.72	$277.33	+$8.61	30% 122-284 (406)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56.8¢	$182.52	$176.63	-$5.89	50% 405-412 (817)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 46¢	$145.36	$150.1	+$4.74	30% 54-125 (179)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 45.7¢	$108.07	$112.32	+$4.25	27% 113-301 (414)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 57.8¢	$97.75	$92.95	-$4.8	49% 183-194 (377)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$50	$50	+$0	48% 131-141 (272)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 53¢	$22.74	$22.1	-$0.64	30% 86-204 (290)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20.17	$20.38	+$0.21	36% 100-177 (277)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 77¢	$15.73	$13.63	-$2.11	58% 134-99 (233)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,350.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$130.22

Record

52%

190-177 (367)

Both legs:

Under$1,014.0358.7¢-$63.77

Over$336.3628.5¢+$193.99

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,360.64

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$86.84

Record

48%

85-92 (177)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,108.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$56.34

Record

54%

319-276 (595)

Both legs:

Under$719.4170.9¢+$66.55

Over$389.3932.9¢-$122.89

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$383.33

Value

$479.28

PnL

+$95.95

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$448.32

Value

$461.77

PnL

+$13.45

Record

31%

118-262 (380)

RN1

Under

Invested

$414.41

Value

$372.31

PnL

-$42.1

Record

53%

274-241 (515)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$295.28

Value

$314.36

PnL

+$19.08

Record

28%

119-313 (432)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$258.5

Value

$309.19

PnL

+$50.69

Record

28%

118-301 (419)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$268.72

Value

$277.33

PnL

+$8.61

Record

30%

122-284 (406)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$182.52

Value

$176.63

PnL

-$5.89

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$145.36

Value

$150.1

PnL

+$4.74

Record

30%

54-125 (179)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$108.07

Value

$112.32

PnL

+$4.25

Record

27%

113-301 (414)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$97.75

Value

$92.95

PnL

-$4.8

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50

Value

$50

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

131-141 (272)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$22.74

Value

$22.1

PnL

-$0.64

Record

30%

86-204 (290)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.17

Value

$20.38

PnL

+$0.21

Record

36%

100-177 (277)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$15.73

Value

$13.63

PnL

-$2.11

Record

58%

134-99 (233)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 15 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.