Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$82.51

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 70¢

+37% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,649

Combined PnL-$190.13

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,623

Combined PnL+$107.61

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 58.1¢	$1.4K	$655.66	-$164.35	48% 86-95 (181)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 43¢	$1.0K	$550.5	+$108.04	57% 104-80 (184)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 54.6¢	$352.96	$389.45	-$17.63	53% 330-294 (624)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.2¢	$153.13	$268.63	+$61.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.6¢	$199.83	$120.82	-$79.01
RN1	Overavg 73¢	$330.69	$287.66	-$43.03	52% 287-270 (557)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 50¢	$604	$280.86	-$21.01	43% 131-176 (307)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 47.4¢	$449	$240.22	+$27.47	26% 55-158 (213)
BI biying88888	Overavg 52¢	$400	$214	+$6	19% 30-131 (161)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50.4¢	$292.02	$156.23	+$9.14	28% 121-308 (429)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 27¢	$125.99	$154.24	+$5.95	53% 214-189 (403)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 52¢	$122	$56.73	-$6.71	49% 427-449 (876)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$60	$27.9	-$4	49% 193-198 (391)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,410.03

Value

$655.66

PnL

-$164.35

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$1,028.96

Value

$550.5

PnL

+$108.04

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$352.96

Value

$389.45

PnL

-$17.63

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

Both legs:

Over$153.1338.2¢+$61.37

Under$199.8354.6¢-$79.01

RN1

Over

Invested

$330.69

Value

$287.66

PnL

-$43.03

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$604

Value

$280.86

PnL

-$21.01

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$449

Value

$240.22

PnL

+$27.47

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

biying88888

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$214

PnL

+$6

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$292.02

Value

$156.23

PnL

+$9.14

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$125.99

Value

$154.24

PnL

+$5.95

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$122

Value

$56.73

PnL

-$6.71

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60

Value

$27.9

PnL

-$4

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.