Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 26¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$122.21

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 26¢

-48% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,583

Combined PnL-$227.37

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,775

Combined PnL+$349.58

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 50.2¢	$2.4K	$986.79	-$207.55	48% 86-95 (181)
RN1	Overavg 49.1¢	$765.73	$896.39	+$130.66	52% 287-270 (557)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 43.6¢	$1.2K	$711.21	+$147.78	53% 330-294 (624)
LI Limousin	Overavg 47¢	$387.66	$226.78	+$44.46	26% 127-363 (490)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 50.6¢	$156	$91.26	+$12.3	26% 55-158 (213)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 47¢	$125	$73.13	+$14.38	57% 104-80 (184)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 56.6¢	$60.13	$38.17	-$21.96	43% 131-176 (307)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 40.6¢	$88	$28.51	+$2.89	49% 193-198 (391)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$10	$4.15	-$0.75	53% 214-189 (403)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.89	$2.89	+$0	49% 427-449 (876)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$2,377.82

Value

$986.79

PnL

-$207.55

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

RN1

Over

Invested

$765.73

Value

$896.39

PnL

+$130.66

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,184.19

Value

$711.21

PnL

+$147.78

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$387.66

Value

$226.78

PnL

+$44.46

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$156

Value

$91.26

PnL

+$12.3

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$125

Value

$73.13

PnL

+$14.38

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.13

Value

$38.17

PnL

-$21.96

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88

Value

$28.51

PnL

+$2.89

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.