Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$199.76

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 79.5¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$968.85

Total Shares1,237

Combined PnL-$161.11

Under5 traders

Total Value$163.4

Total Shares574

Combined PnL-$38.64

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 69.6¢	$842.91	$622.73	-$173.87	53% 330-294 (624)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 80.3¢	$581.23	$319.52	-$200.53	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Over leg	Overavg 80.3¢	$261.94	$247.76	-$14.18
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.4¢	$153.73	$71.76	-$186.35
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 62¢	$248	$157.48	+$3.72	57% 104-80 (184)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 48.9¢	$261.8	$143.55	-$22.59	28% 121-308 (429)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$61.57	$75.22	+$0.61
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$91.52	$68.33	-$23.21
BI biying88888	Overavg 48¢	$160	$101.6	+$24.8	19% 30-131 (161)
RN1CTR	Underavg 38¢	$248	$90.52	-$3.72	52% 287-270 (557)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 49¢	$102.81	$87.05	-$15.76	26% 121-344 (465)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 20.1¢	$30.96	$27.82	-$3.14	53% 214-189 (403)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 40.4¢	$55.55	$26.81	-$28.74	49% 427-449 (876)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$40	$14.6	-$2.2	49% 193-198 (391)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$10	$3.65	-$0.85	48% 86-95 (181)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$842.91

Value

$622.73

PnL

-$173.87

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$581.23

Value

$319.52

PnL

-$200.53

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Over$261.9480.3¢-$14.18

Under$153.7351.4¢-$186.35

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$248

Value

$157.48

PnL

+$3.72

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$261.8

Value

$143.55

PnL

-$22.59

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

Both legs:

Over$61.5752¢+$0.61

Under$91.5248.9¢-$23.21

biying88888

Over

Invested

$160

Value

$101.6

PnL

+$24.8

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$248

Value

$90.52

PnL

-$3.72

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$102.81

Value

$87.05

PnL

-$15.76

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.96

Value

$27.82

PnL

-$3.14

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.55

Value

$26.81

PnL

-$28.74

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$14.6

PnL

-$2.2

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.85

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.