Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (62%) · Over at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over89¢Under11¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$5.78

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 89¢

+64% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,827

Combined PnL+$260.25

Under5 traders

Total Value$320.03

Total Shares1,489

Combined PnL-$266.03

Over — 62%Under — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 39.9¢	$1.1K	$458.82	-$115	52% 287-270 (557)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.8¢	$167.74	$232.45	+$13.2
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.9¢	$354.55	$226.36	-$128.2
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49.3¢	$534.02	$397.84	+$134.66	26% 55-158 (213)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 53¢	$387.59	$359.79	-$14.12	53% 330-294 (624)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 49.9¢	$482.8	$349.21	+$63.01	28% 121-308 (429)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 58.9¢	$169.13	$234.02	+$64.89	53% 214-189 (403)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 53¢	$319.71	$232.67	-$87.04	29% 32-78 (110)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 71.7¢	$253	$188.49	+$7.13	57% 104-80 (184)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 40.7¢	$254.08	$79.62	-$174.46	43% 131-176 (307)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 40¢	$14.38	$18.16	+$3.78	57% 139-106 (245)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Overavg 37¢	$6.6	$7.45	+$0.85	67% 762-377 (1139)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 34.9¢	$6.35	$2.64	-$3.53	49% 427-449 (876)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$10	$2.55	-$0.25	48% 86-95 (181)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$10	$2.55	-$0.75	49% 193-198 (391)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 44¢	$0.79	$1.29	+$0.05	48% 77-84 (161)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,106.95

Value

$458.82

PnL

-$115

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

Both legs:

Over$167.7453.8¢+$13.2

Under$354.5539.9¢-$128.2

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$534.02

Value

$397.84

PnL

+$134.66

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$387.59

Value

$359.79

PnL

-$14.12

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$482.8

Value

$349.21

PnL

+$63.01

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$169.13

Value

$234.02

PnL

+$64.89

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$319.71

Value

$232.67

PnL

-$87.04

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$253

Value

$188.49

PnL

+$7.13

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$254.08

Value

$79.62

PnL

-$174.46

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$14.38

Value

$18.16

PnL

+$3.78

Record

57%

139-106 (245)

SunlineTicker<$100

Over

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$0.85

Record

67%

762-377 (1139)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.35

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$3.53

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$0.79

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

77-84 (161)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.