Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 51¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 10

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$55.0K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares9,455

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over9 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,754

Combined PnL+$0.93

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$25.3K	$25.4K	+$38.56	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$14.1K	$14.1K	-$14.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.3¢	$11.2K	$11.2K	+$52.89
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 50.3¢	$13.6K	$13.5K	-$105.83	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.3¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$21.21
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.4¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$127.04
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.4K	$3.4K	+$1.1K	54% 5399-4609 (10008)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$21.99	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$11.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$33.76
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$20.95	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
FO forecastication4	Overavg 49.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$15.17	50% 1635-1617 (3252)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.42	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$821.85	$829.47	+$7.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$274.15	$273.95	-$0.2
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 49¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$10.2	55% 845-699 (1544)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$936.75	$959.67	+$22.93	48% 575-623 (1198)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$655	$675.05	+$20.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$281.75	$284.63	+$2.88
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 50.6¢	$804.66	$662.1	-$15.49	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
73 739633786CTR	Underavg 51.2¢	$564.48	$556.51	-$10.56	44% 452-565 (1017)
BI biying99999ARB<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$264.67	$266.85	+$2.18	48% 176-188 (364)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$178.98	$180.29	+$1.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$85.69	$86.57	+$0.87
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 49.3¢	$211.5	$212.36	+$0.86	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 49¢	$156.8	$158.4	+$1.6	47% 1783-1996 (3779)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$544.14	$123.75	-$15.61	58% 53852-38329 (92181)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 49.8¢	$60.68	$48.25	+$0	57% 25537-19073 (44610)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 50¢	$120.04	$29.98	+$0.55	53% 28430-25699 (54129)
AU auros2	Overavg 49¢	$126.95	$27.78	+$0.82	26% 6-17 (23)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Overavg 50¢	$498	$25.72	+$2.73	57% 215-161 (376)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 50¢	$9.9	$10	+$0.1	50% 8680-8849 (17529)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.95	+$0.05	56% 9043-7128 (16171)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$25,316.15

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$38.56

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

Both legs:

Over$14,129.2649.6¢-$14.33

Under$11,186.8950.3¢+$52.89

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$13,642.84

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$105.83

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

Both legs:

Under$6,836.8750.3¢+$21.21

Over$6,805.9750.4¢-$127.04

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$2,357.24

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

5399-4609 (10008)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,099.89

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$21.99

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

Both legs:

Over$1,953.0650.2¢+$11.77

Under$1,146.8351¢-$33.76

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$2,513.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$20.95

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

forecastication4

Over

Invested

$1,907.14

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$15.17

Record

50%

1635-1617 (3252)

sentrioARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,096

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.42

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

Both legs:

Over$821.8549¢+$7.62

Under$274.1550.5¢-$0.2

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.2

Record

55%

845-699 (1544)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Under

Invested

$936.75

Value

$959.67

PnL

+$22.93

Record

48%

575-623 (1198)

Both legs:

Invested

$804.66

Value

$662.1

PnL

-$15.49

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

739633786CTR

Under

Invested

$564.48

Value

$556.51

PnL

-$10.56

Record

44%

452-565 (1017)

biying99999ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$264.67

Value

$266.85

PnL

+$2.18

Record

48%

176-188 (364)

Both legs:

Under$178.9850.1¢+$1.31

Over$85.6949¢+$0.87

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$211.5

Value

$212.36

PnL

+$0.86

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$156.8

Value

$158.4

PnL

+$1.6

Record

47%

1783-1996 (3779)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$544.14

Value

$123.75

PnL

-$15.61

Record

58%

53852-38329 (92181)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.68

Value

$48.25

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

25537-19073 (44610)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$120.04

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

28430-25699 (54129)

auros2

Over

Invested

$126.95

Value

$27.78

PnL

+$0.82

Record

26%

6-17 (23)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Over

Invested

$498

Value

$25.72

PnL

+$2.73

Record

57%

215-161 (376)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

8680-8849 (17529)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.