Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 56¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$28.56

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 55.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares10,775

Combined PnL-$165.43

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,643

Combined PnL+$193.99

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 46¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$154.14	—
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53.8¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$59.88	—
nigiri99	Overavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$52.04	—
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 52.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$71.92	—
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$490	$472.5	-$17.5	—
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.3¢	$354.98	$333.75	-$21.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$135	$138.75	+$3.75
38 38791873984189	Overavg 54¢	$153.07	$157.2	+$4.13	—
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$104.58	$99.75	-$4.83	—
AU auros2CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$83.78	$79.32	-$4.46	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 54¢	$73	$40.52	+$1.1	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$36.25	$35.07	-$1.18	—
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 47¢	$25.23	$29.79	+$4.56	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 54¢	$13.16	$13.53	+$0.37	—
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.45	-$0.45	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.23	-$0.38	—

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,728.28

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$154.14

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,057.67

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$59.88

Record

—

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,873.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$52.04

Record

—

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$1,308.37

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$71.92

Record

—

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$490

Value

$472.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

—

Both legs:

Under$354.9847.3¢-$21.25

Over$13554¢+$3.75

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$153.07

Value

$157.2

PnL

+$4.13

Record

—

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$104.58

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$4.83

Record

—

auros2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.78

Value

$79.32

PnL

-$4.46

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$73

Value

$40.52

PnL

+$1.1

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.25

Value

$35.07

PnL

-$1.18

Record

—

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$25.23

Value

$29.79

PnL

+$4.56

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.16

Value

$13.53

PnL

+$0.37

Record

—

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.45

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.38

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.