Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (46%) · Pacers at 76¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 10

Mavericks24¢Pacers76¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$108.65

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 76¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks24%

Pacers76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers6 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,152

Combined PnL-$114.62

Mavericks7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,660

Combined PnL+$223.27

Pacers — 46%Mavericks — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Pacersavg 72.6¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$162.34	53% 330-294 (624)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Pacersavg 73.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$60.52	53% 214-189 (403)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pacersavg 62.3¢	$790.78	$821.73	+$30.94	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 34.9¢	$296.92	$417.44	+$120.52
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 62.3¢	$493.86	$404.29	-$89.57
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Pacersavg 61.3¢	$927.2	$755.55	-$60.56	22% 84-295 (379)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48.5¢	$388.01	$391.64	+$12.78
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 61.3¢	$437.24	$363.91	-$73.34
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Mavericksavg 34¢	$285.3	$356.62	+$71.32	57% 104-80 (184)
LI LimousinCTR	Mavericksavg 27.3¢	$192.09	$348.06	+$155.97	26% 127-363 (490)
RN1	Pacersavg 76.6¢	$403.85	$266.57	-$77.29	52% 287-270 (557)
nigiri99	Pacersavg 64.1¢	$176.21	$237.88	+$61.67	41% 29-42 (71)
VE VenusianCTR	Mavericksavg 31.8¢	$179.33	$143.75	-$35.58	27% 128-350 (478)
SL SlickRick123	Pacersavg 40¢	$109.31	$110.67	+$1.37	19% 40-175 (215)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Mavericksavg 25¢	$67.22	$107.55	+$40.33	26% 121-344 (465)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 35.9¢	$20.94	$31.73	+$10.79	49% 427-449 (876)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$75.3	$7.88	-$17.37	49% 193-198 (391)
AN Anon455<$100	Pacersavg 64¢	$4.14	$5.6	+$1.46	48% 86-95 (181)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 35¢	$7.6	$5.4	-$2.2	28% 130-331 (461)

Flaznorp

Pacers

Invested

$1,597.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$162.34

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Pacers

Invested

$1,048.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$60.52

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$790.78

Value

$821.73

PnL

+$30.94

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Mavericks$296.9234.9¢+$120.52

Pacers$493.8662.3¢-$89.57

takeormakeARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$927.2

Value

$755.55

PnL

-$60.56

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

Both legs:

Mavericks$388.0148.5¢+$12.78

Pacers$437.2461.3¢-$73.34

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$285.3

Value

$356.62

PnL

+$71.32

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

LimousinCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$192.09

Value

$348.06

PnL

+$155.97

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

RN1

Pacers

Invested

$403.85

Value

$266.57

PnL

-$77.29

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

nigiri99

Pacers

Invested

$176.21

Value

$237.88

PnL

+$61.67

Record

41%

29-42 (71)

VenusianCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$179.33

Value

$143.75

PnL

-$35.58

Record

27%

128-350 (478)

SlickRick123

Pacers

Invested

$109.31

Value

$110.67

PnL

+$1.37

Record

19%

40-175 (215)

MadridTimeCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$67.22

Value

$107.55

PnL

+$40.33

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$20.94

Value

$31.73

PnL

+$10.79

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$75.3

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$17.37

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

Anon455<$100

Pacers

Invested

$4.14

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$1.46

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$7.6

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$2.2

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.