Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Mavericks (54%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (77%) · Pacers at 47¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 10

Mavericks54¢Pacers46¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 77%

Total Value

$44.1K

Combined PnL

-$43.97

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 46.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 54%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks54%

Pacers47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares39,660

Combined PnL+$199.79

Pacers10 traders

Total Value$23.3K

Total Shares49,161

Combined PnL-$243.76

Mavericks — 23%Pacers — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1	Mavericksavg 52¢	$20.6K	$20.8K	+$198.28	45% 120-149 (269)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pacersavg 48¢	$38.8K	$18.4K	-$194.2	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Pacersavg 47¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$38.41	48% 575-623 (1198)
73 739633786CTR	Pacersavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.88	44% 452-565 (1017)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$33.53	$33.89	+$0.36	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Pacersavg 48¢	$34.08	$33.73	-$0.36	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$26.58	$26.86	+$0.28	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$20.68	$20.9	+$0.22	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 52.4¢	$50.18	$15.64	+$1.46	53% 28430-25699 (54129)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Pacersavg 46¢	$7.07	$7.15	+$0.08	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Mavericksavg 53¢	$4.87	$4.92	+$0.05	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Pacersavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.38	+$0.13	54% 5399-4609 (10008)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$5	$2.38	+$0.03	53% 14841-13046 (27887)

RJW1

Mavericks

Invested

$20,605.68

Value

$20.8K

PnL

+$198.28

Record

45%

120-149 (269)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pacers

Invested

$38,839.88

Value

$18.4K

PnL

-$194.2

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Pacers

Invested

$3,611

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$38.41

Record

48%

575-623 (1198)

739633786CTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,116.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.88

Record

44%

452-565 (1017)

LimousinCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$33.53

Value

$33.89

PnL

+$0.36

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$34.08

Value

$33.73

PnL

-$0.36

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$26.58

Value

$26.86

PnL

+$0.28

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$20.68

Value

$20.9

PnL

+$0.22

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$50.18

Value

$15.64

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

28430-25699 (54129)

NM-PCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$7.07

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

5399-4609 (10008)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 54%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.