Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (43%) · Mavericks at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Pacers45¢Mavericks55¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$100.55

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers45%

Mavericks56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$862.43

Total Shares1,115

Combined PnL+$147.12

Pacers4 traders

Total Value$314.75

Total Shares746

Combined PnL-$46.57

Mavericks — 43%Pacers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMavericks 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Mavericksavg 52.5¢	$690.12	$649.23	+$123.61	53% 330-294 (624)
RN1ARB<$100	Pacersavg 48.9¢	$432.16	$382.87	-$47.4	52% 287-270 (557)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 48.9¢	$311.77	$200.66	-$111.67
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 44.3¢	$117.94	$182.21	+$64.27
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$298	$327	+$29	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 51¢	$204	$254	+$50
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 47¢	$94	$73	-$21
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Pacersavg 56¢	$185.07	$209.44	+$24.37	28% 121-308 (429)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 56¢	$182.56	$118.99	-$1.63
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45.2¢	$64.45	$90.45	+$26
JU justaluckydude	Mavericksavg 61.2¢	$153.57	$171.94	+$18.37	26% 55-158 (213)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pacersavg 49.8¢	$255.72	$161.37	-$83.04	22% 84-295 (379)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pacersavg 43.6¢	$153.37	$145.67	-$20.06	49% 427-449 (876)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 43.6¢	$124.77	$104.39	-$20.38
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 44¢	$28.6	$41.28	+$0.33
nigiri99CTR	Pacersavg 36¢	$75.19	$118.09	+$42.9	41% 29-42 (71)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Mavericksavg 60¢	$36.13	$41.26	+$5.14	53% 214-189 (403)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pacersavg 42.3¢	$57.18	$33.47	-$6.35	49% 193-198 (391)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Pacersavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.83	-$0.07	55% 77-63 (140)

Flaznorp

Mavericks

Invested

$690.12

Value

$649.23

PnL

+$123.61

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

RN1ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$432.16

Value

$382.87

PnL

-$47.4

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

Both legs:

Pacers$311.7748.9¢-$111.67

Mavericks$117.9444.3¢+$64.27

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$298

Value

$327

PnL

+$29

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Mavericks$20451¢+$50

Pacers$9447¢-$21

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$185.07

Value

$209.44

PnL

+$24.37

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

Both legs:

Pacers$182.5656¢-$1.63

Mavericks$64.4545.2¢+$26

justaluckydude

Mavericks

Invested

$153.57

Value

$171.94

PnL

+$18.37

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

takeormakeCTR

Pacers

Invested

$255.72

Value

$161.37

PnL

-$83.04

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$153.37

Value

$145.67

PnL

-$20.06

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Both legs:

Pacers$124.7743.6¢-$20.38

Mavericks$28.644¢+$0.33

nigiri99CTR

Pacers

Invested

$75.19

Value

$118.09

PnL

+$42.9

Record

41%

29-42 (71)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$36.13

Value

$41.26

PnL

+$5.14

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$57.18

Value

$33.47

PnL

-$6.35

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

lryyyCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

77-63 (140)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMavericks 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.