Spread: Pacers (-1.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (33%) · Mavericks at 77¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 10

Pacers24¢Mavericks76¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$615.34

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 76.5¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers24%

Mavericks77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,533

Combined PnL+$606.83

Pacers8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,506

Combined PnL+$8.52

Mavericks — 33%Pacers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (10 on Pacers) disagree here.

sharpMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPacers 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Mavericksavg 48.9¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$618.19	53% 330-294 (624)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Mavericksavg 59.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$96.9	53% 214-189 (403)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$681.14	$718.22	+$37.09	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 51¢	$344.93	$543.97	+$199.04
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 37.6¢	$336.2	$174.25	-$161.95
TA takeormake	Mavericksavg 67.7¢	$654.93	$502.1	-$56.78	22% 84-295 (379)
BI biying88888CTR	Pacersavg 36¢	$800	$480	+$192	19% 30-131 (161)
RN1	Mavericksavg 53.5¢	$272.32	$414.63	+$142.31	52% 287-270 (557)
nigiri99CTR	Pacersavg 38¢	$163.63	$260.76	+$97.13	41% 29-42 (71)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Mavericksavg 57.5¢	$319.46	$209.95	+$8.48	26% 55-158 (213)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 57.5¢	$122.47	$162.95	+$43.48
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 41¢	$82	$47	-$35
38 38791873984189CTR	Pacersavg 36¢	$206.91	$133.5	-$73.41	49% 427-449 (876)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Pacersavg 55.9¢	$239.06	$83.32	-$155.74	57% 104-80 (184)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Pacersavg 52.6¢	$91.81	$80.11	-$9.6	49% 193-198 (391)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52.6¢	$61.54	$47.39	-$14.16
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 50.4¢	$27.75	$32.73	+$4.56
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pacersavg 43¢	$67.21	$38.29	-$28.92	26% 127-363 (490)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 43.2¢	$52.07	$29.55	-$22.52	27% 128-350 (478)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Pacersavg 43¢	$9.63	$9.41	-$0.22	28% 121-308 (429)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pacersavg 38¢	$2.82	$3.03	+$0.2	18% 55-248 (303)

Flaznorp

Mavericks

Invested

$1,135.87

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$618.19

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Mavericks

Invested

$1,438.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$96.9

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$681.14

Value

$718.22

PnL

+$37.09

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Mavericks$344.9351¢+$199.04

Pacers$336.237.6¢-$161.95

takeormake

Mavericks

Invested

$654.93

Value

$502.1

PnL

-$56.78

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

biying88888CTR

Pacers

Invested

$800

Value

$480

PnL

+$192

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

RN1

Mavericks

Invested

$272.32

Value

$414.63

PnL

+$142.31

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

nigiri99CTR

Pacers

Invested

$163.63

Value

$260.76

PnL

+$97.13

Record

41%

29-42 (71)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$319.46

Value

$209.95

PnL

+$8.48

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

Both legs:

Mavericks$122.4757.5¢+$43.48

Pacers$8241¢-$35

38791873984189CTR

Pacers

Invested

$206.91

Value

$133.5

PnL

-$73.41

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Pacers

Invested

$239.06

Value

$83.32

PnL

-$155.74

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Pan9XARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$91.81

Value

$80.11

PnL

-$9.6

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

Both legs:

Pacers$61.5452.6¢-$14.16

Mavericks$27.7550.4¢+$4.56

LimousinCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$67.21

Value

$38.29

PnL

-$28.92

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$52.07

Value

$29.55

PnL

-$22.52

Record

27%

128-350 (478)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$9.63

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$0.22

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.2

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (10 on Pacers) disagree here.

sharpMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPacers 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.