Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Rockets (57%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (63%) · Wizards at 43¢ · $566 held · ends Nov 16

Rockets57¢Wizards43¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 63%

Total Value

$565.57

Combined PnL

-$10.16

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 42.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets57%

Wizards43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$375.22

Total Shares881

Combined PnL-$18.34

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$190.35

Total Shares331

Combined PnL+$8.18

Wizards — 63%Rockets — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWizards 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FU Fujimi888CTR	Wizardsavg 44.9¢	$370.9	$351.25	-$19.65	— 7-10 (17)
38 38791873984189	Rocketsavg 55¢	$167.2	$174.8	+$7.6	48% 4254-4679 (8933)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Rocketsavg 55¢	$9.38	$9.8	+$0.43	56% 3971-3140 (7111)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 41¢	$8.2	$8.8	+$0.6	56% 723-572 (1295)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 41¢	$7.77	$8.34	+$0.57	54% 2109-1811 (3920)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Rocketsavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.75	+$0.15	51% 3966-3737 (7703)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 42¢	$4.49	$4.7	+$0.21	48% 4971-5335 (10306)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.13	-$0.08	43% 891-1173 (2064)

Fujimi888CTR

Wizards

Invested

$370.9

Value

$351.25

PnL

-$19.65

Record

—

7-10 (17)

38791873984189

Rockets

Invested

$167.2

Value

$174.8

PnL

+$7.6

Record

48%

4254-4679 (8933)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Rockets

Invested

$9.38

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.43

Record

56%

3971-3140 (7111)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

56%

723-572 (1295)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$7.77

Value

$8.34

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

2109-1811 (3920)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

3966-3737 (7703)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

4971-5335 (10306)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.08

Record

43%

891-1173 (2064)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWizards 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.