Rockets vs. Suns: O/U 220.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 58¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 25%
$1.4K
$57.85
54.6¢ → 58¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54.6¢ | $847.09 | $900.35 | +$53.26 | 54% 18478-15550 (34028) |
73 739633786CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $472.35 | $477.37 | +$5.02 | 44% 413-535 (948) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $12 | $11.75 | -$0.25 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.2¢ | $6.27 | $6.11 | -$0.16 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 46.6¢ | $5.57 | $5.62 | +$0.05 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $10 | $5.15 | -$0.05 | 50% 1412-1411 (2823) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 47.5¢ | $4.75 | $4.7 | -$0.05 | 52% 9014-8167 (17181) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.38 | +$0.02 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
Invested
$847.09
Value
$900.35
PnL
+$53.26
Record
54%
18478-15550 (34028)
Invested
$472.35
Value
$477.37
PnL
+$5.02
Record
44%
413-535 (948)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$6.11
PnL
-$0.16
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.57
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$10
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
1412-1411 (2823)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
9014-8167 (17181)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.