Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Suns (54%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (67%) · Rockets at 47¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8

Rockets47¢Suns53¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 67%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$84.12

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 46.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 54%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rockets47%

Suns54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets10 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares13,261

Combined PnL+$126.25

Suns5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,134

Combined PnL-$210.37

Rockets — 67%Suns — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Rocketsavg 47.4¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$145.67	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Sunsavg 54.2¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$211.79	58% 286-206 (492)
SE sentrioCTR	Rocketsavg 47.5¢	$570.48	$557.96	-$12.52	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
73 739633786CTR	Rocketsavg 50¢	$582.58	$541.85	-$40.73	44% 413-535 (948)
VeryLucky888CTR	Rocketsavg 47.5¢	$490.29	$480.46	-$9.83	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
NM NM-PCTR	Rocketsavg 47.4¢	$414.75	$433.13	+$18.38	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-PCTR	Rocketsavg 47.5¢	$332.5	$346.5	+$14	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
HI hi774cCTR	Rocketsavg 47¢	$97.08	$102.24	+$5.16	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 47¢	$79.9	$84.15	+$4.25	50% 1412-1412 (2824)
38 38791873984189<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$82	$82.82	+$0.82	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
IA ianf2026<$100	Sunsavg 53¢	$80.66	$81.42	+$0.76	50% 122-123 (245)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Sunsavg 51¢	$53.23	$52.7	-$0.52	48% 405-446 (851)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$33	$29.8	+$0.37	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 48¢	$26.4	$27.23	+$0.83	50% 8436-8484 (16920)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 47¢	$20	$21.06	+$1.06	48% 4050-4327 (8377)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rockets

Invested

$4,201.41

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$145.67

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

MAGATheeStallion

Suns

Invested

$3,067.39

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$211.79

Record

58%

286-206 (492)

sentrioCTR

Rockets

Invested

$570.48

Value

$557.96

PnL

-$12.52

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

739633786CTR

Rockets

Invested

$582.58

Value

$541.85

PnL

-$40.73

Record

44%

413-535 (948)

VeryLucky888CTR

Rockets

Invested

$490.29

Value

$480.46

PnL

-$9.83

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

NM-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$414.75

Value

$433.13

PnL

+$18.38

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$332.5

Value

$346.5

PnL

+$14

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

hi774cCTR

Rockets

Invested

$97.08

Value

$102.24

PnL

+$5.16

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$79.9

Value

$84.15

PnL

+$4.25

Record

50%

1412-1412 (2824)

38791873984189<$100

Suns

Invested

$82

Value

$82.82

PnL

+$0.82

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

ianf2026<$100

Suns

Invested

$80.66

Value

$81.42

PnL

+$0.76

Record

50%

122-123 (245)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Suns

Invested

$53.23

Value

$52.7

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$33

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$0.37

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

RLWGCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$26.4

Value

$27.23

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$20

Value

$21.06

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

4050-4327 (8377)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 54%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.