Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (74%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 27¢ · $772 held · ended Nov 14

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$771.74

Combined PnL

$87.7

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 26.5¢

-42% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$590.71

Total Shares1,224

Combined PnL+$44.24

Under6 traders

Total Value$181.02

Total Shares342

Combined PnL+$43.46

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49¢	$288.77	$297.61	+$8.84	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 40.2¢	$118.1	$149.85	+$31.75	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$130.32	$133.27	+$2.94	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 37.3¢	$286.9	$99.55	+$30.93	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$54.87	$58.87	+$4	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 35¢	$5.6	$8.8	+$3.2	37% 926-1560 (2486)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 33¢	$5.28	$8.8	+$3.52	36% 883-1569 (2452)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 31¢	$4.03	$7.15	+$3.12	36% 911-1587 (2498)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 56¢	$2.8	$3.68	+$0.88	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 35¢	$1.75	$2.75	+$1	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$6.56	$1.42	-$2.48	52% 66-62 (128)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$288.77

Value

$297.61

PnL

+$8.84

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$118.1

Value

$149.85

PnL

+$31.75

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$130.32

Value

$133.27

PnL

+$2.94

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$286.9

Value

$99.55

PnL

+$30.93

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.87

Value

$58.87

PnL

+$4

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$5.6

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$3.2

Record

37%

926-1560 (2486)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$5.28

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$3.52

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$4.03

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$3.12

Record

36%

911-1587 (2498)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.88

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.56

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$2.48

Record

52%

66-62 (128)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.