Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 56¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$793.45

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 55.5¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares11,102

Combined PnL+$910.05

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,080

Combined PnL-$116.6

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 53.4¢	$3.2K	$3.9K	+$776.1	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 55¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$37.54	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 45¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$47.54	45% 445-541 (986)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 55¢	$588.33	$598.31	+$9.97	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 54¢	$110.19	$135.21	+$25.03	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 23¢	$36.98	$82	+$45.02	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 46¢	$343.58	$74.36	-$16	51% 470-452 (922)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 77¢	$123.8	$70.74	-$53.06	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 29¢	$12.8	$22.51	+$9.71	37% 926-1560 (2486)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 27¢	$4.88	$9.21	+$4.33	36% 911-1587 (2498)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 29.5¢	$3.21	$5.56	+$2.35	53% 1572-1421 (2993)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$3,157.62

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$776.1

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$2,225.56

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$37.54

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$2,139.45

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$47.54

Record

45%

445-541 (986)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$588.33

Value

$598.31

PnL

+$9.97

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$110.19

Value

$135.21

PnL

+$25.03

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$36.98

Value

$82

PnL

+$45.02

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$343.58

Value

$74.36

PnL

-$16

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$123.8

Value

$70.74

PnL

-$53.06

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$12.8

Value

$22.51

PnL

+$9.71

Record

37%

926-1560 (2486)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$4.88

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$4.33

Record

36%

911-1587 (2498)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.21

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$2.35

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.