Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 58¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 14

Over58¢Under42¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

Total Value

$33.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 58¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares35,424

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Under9 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares38,001

Combined PnL+$353.26

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Overavg 54¢	$18.6K	$15.5K	$-3.1K	49% 266-281 (547)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 46¢	$15.4K	$15.3K	-$148.19	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 42¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$390.66	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 46¢	$676.96	$699.03	+$22.07	51% 470-452 (922)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 50¢	$500	$445	-$55	44% 422-532 (954)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 26.2¢	$137.73	$232.21	+$94.49	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 40.5¢	$71.33	$57.31	-$14.02	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 31.7¢	$33.02	$39.59	+$6.57	37% 841-1416 (2257)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$10.19	$10.3	+$0.11	43% 920-1244 (2164)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$3.97	$4.57	+$0.6	36% 883-1569 (2452)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$3.58	$4.54	+$0.96	37% 1515-2566 (4081)

Pwaddler

Over

Invested

$18,588.73

Value

$15.5K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

49%

266-281 (547)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$15,445.12

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$148.19

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,471.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$390.66

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$676.96

Value

$699.03

PnL

+$22.07

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$445

PnL

-$55

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$137.73

Value

$232.21

PnL

+$94.49

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$71.33

Value

$57.31

PnL

-$14.02

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.02

Value

$39.59

PnL

+$6.57

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.19

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0.11

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.97

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.6

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.58

Value

$4.54

PnL

+$0.96

Record

37%

1515-2566 (4081)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.