Spread: Spurs (-34.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (45%) · Spurs at 67¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs67¢Warriors33¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 45%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$33.07

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 66.5¢

+64% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs67%

Warriors34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,964

Combined PnL+$79.91

Warriors6 traders

Total Value$557

Total Shares1,492

Combined PnL-$46.84

Spurs — 45%Warriors — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Spursavg 25.3¢	$321.82	$844.76	+$522.94	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 75¢	$2.3K	$443.41	-$404.55	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Warriorsavg 44¢	$440	$335	-$105	11% 55-453 (508)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Warriorsavg 25¢	$78	$104.52	+$26.52	44% 422-532 (954)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 61¢	$86.51	$86.83	+$32.32	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 33¢	$21.19	$21.51	+$0.32	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
SU suntori<$100	Spursavg 50¢	$4.76	$6.33	+$1.57	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Spursavg 43¢	$37.72	$5.26	-$32.46	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 50¢	$4.76	$4.81	+$0.05	37% 841-1416 (2257)
RN1CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 37.3¢	$5.38	$4.33	-$1.05	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 29¢	$9.57	$1.98	-$7.59	49% 1349-1396 (2745)

Flaznorp

Spurs

Invested

$321.82

Value

$844.76

PnL

+$522.94

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$2,256.94

Value

$443.41

PnL

-$404.55

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Warriors

Invested

$440

Value

$335

PnL

-$105

Record

11%

55-453 (508)

justaluckydudeCTR

Warriors

Invested

$78

Value

$104.52

PnL

+$26.52

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$86.51

Value

$86.83

PnL

+$32.32

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$21.19

Value

$21.51

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

suntori<$100

Spurs

Invested

$4.76

Value

$6.33

PnL

+$1.57

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Spurs

Invested

$37.72

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$32.46

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

RN1CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$5.38

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$1.05

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$9.57

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$7.59

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.