Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Spurs (62%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Spurs (-28.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (45%) · Warriors at 38¢ · $986 held · ended Nov 14

Spurs62¢Warriors38¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 45%

Total Value

$986.29

Combined PnL

-$162.01

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 38¢

-32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs62%

Warriors38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors5 traders

Total Value$727.72

Total Shares1,522

Combined PnL-$165.31

Spurs6 traders

Total Value$258.56

Total Shares538

Combined PnL+$3.3

Warriors — 45%Spurs — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (10 on Spurs) disagree here.

ctrSpurs 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Warriorsavg 67.4¢	$275.5	$215.27	-$60.23	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
RN1CTR	Warriorsavg 56.8¢	$304.56	$203.88	-$100.68	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 55.1¢	$160.22	$154.15	-$6.07	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
FL Flaznorp	Spursavg 50¢	$146.67	$137.79	-$8.88	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
PA Pan9XCTR	Warriorsavg 53.1¢	$105.56	$87.54	-$0.09	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 37¢	$65.12	$66.88	+$1.76	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
LR lryyy<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$37.67	$37.67	+$0	45% 712-885 (1597)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$30.77	$29.51	-$1.26	37% 841-1416 (2257)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Spursavg 48¢	$18.98	$18.81	-$0.17	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
balthazar<$100	Spursavg 13¢	$5.2	$18.8	+$13.6	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$15.98	$15.98	-$0	44% 422-532 (954)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Warriors

Invested

$275.5

Value

$215.27

PnL

-$60.23

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

RN1CTR

Warriors

Invested

$304.56

Value

$203.88

PnL

-$100.68

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$160.22

Value

$154.15

PnL

-$6.07

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Flaznorp

Spurs

Invested

$146.67

Value

$137.79

PnL

-$8.88

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Pan9XCTR

Warriors

Invested

$105.56

Value

$87.54

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$65.12

Value

$66.88

PnL

+$1.76

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

lryyy<$100

Spurs

Invested

$37.67

Value

$37.67

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

712-885 (1597)

topdogbigboi<$100

Spurs

Invested

$30.77

Value

$29.51

PnL

-$1.26

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Spurs

Invested

$18.98

Value

$18.81

PnL

-$0.17

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

balthazar<$100

Spurs

Invested

$5.2

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$13.6

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

justaluckydude<$100

Spurs

Invested

$15.98

Value

$15.98

PnL

-$0

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (10 on Spurs) disagree here.

ctrSpurs 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.