Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$52.05

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 95.4¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,594

Combined PnL+$57.77

Over5 traders

Total Value$111.3

Total Shares1,236

Combined PnL-$109.81

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Underavg 92.9¢	$883.64	$827.52	-$56.12	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
RN1	Underavg 77.2¢	$496.32	$610.21	+$113.88	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 23.1¢	$132.12	$48.71	-$83.41	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 7.8¢	$34.23	$42.18	+$7.95	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
└ Over leg	Overavg 7.8¢	$20.01	$21.85	+$1.84
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$14.22	$20.33	+$6.11
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 10.5¢	$53.21	$25.79	-$27.42	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$67.63	$21.05	-$3.72	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 9.1¢	$10.81	$15.51	+$4.7	36% 410-719 (1129)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$0.2	$0.24	+$0.04	55% 843-701 (1544)

suntori

Under

Invested

$883.64

Value

$827.52

PnL

-$56.12

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

RN1

Under

Invested

$496.32

Value

$610.21

PnL

+$113.88

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$132.12

Value

$48.71

PnL

-$83.41

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$34.23

Value

$42.18

PnL

+$7.95

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Both legs:

Over$20.017.8¢+$1.84

Under$14.2264¢+$6.11

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.21

Value

$25.79

PnL

-$27.42

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.63

Value

$21.05

PnL

-$3.72

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.81

Value

$15.51

PnL

+$4.7

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.