Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 44¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$225.7

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 43.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$755.08

Total Shares2,197

Combined PnL-$231.89

Under4 traders

Total Value$98.56

Total Shares167

Combined PnL+$6.19

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 53.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$72.47	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.1¢	$740.26	$787.84	+$47.58
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.6¢	$261.57	$279.93	+$24.89
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$760.07	$708.48	-$51.6	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$442.7	$400.99	-$41.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.3¢	$317.37	$307.49	-$9.89
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$322.63	$357.56	+$34.93	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$210.4	$260.04	+$49.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.7¢	$112.23	$97.52	-$14.7
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 43.7¢	$581.74	$289.4	-$111.52	55% 843-701 (1544)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$135.34	$132.08	-$3.26	39% 233-367 (600)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 43.3¢	$128.8	$84.77	-$26.19	49% 786-829 (1615)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 44.8¢	$95.23	$78.58	-$16.65	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 44.7¢	$240.32	$62.37	-$33.86	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$82	$59	-$23	36% 410-719 (1129)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$66.28	$48.88	-$17.4	31% 444-971 (1415)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 55¢	$33.97	$37.06	+$3.09	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 58¢	$29	$30	+$1	52% 235-217 (452)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$30.11	$29.17	+$1.56	49% 973-998 (1971)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55¢	$4.89	$2.33	+$0.54	55% 729-596 (1325)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,081.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$72.47

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Under$740.2653.1¢+$47.58

Over$261.5740.6¢+$24.89

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$760.07

Value

$708.48

PnL

-$51.6

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Over$442.748¢-$41.71

Under$317.3758.3¢-$9.89

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$322.63

Value

$357.56

PnL

+$34.93

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Under$210.453¢+$49.64

Over$112.2339.7¢-$14.7

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$581.74

Value

$289.4

PnL

-$111.52

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$135.34

Value

$132.08

PnL

-$3.26

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$128.8

Value

$84.77

PnL

-$26.19

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.23

Value

$78.58

PnL

-$16.65

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$240.32

Value

$62.37

PnL

-$33.86

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82

Value

$59

PnL

-$23

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.28

Value

$48.88

PnL

-$17.4

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$33.97

Value

$37.06

PnL

+$3.09

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$29

Value

$30

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$30.11

Value

$29.17

PnL

+$1.56

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$4.89

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.54

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.