Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (23%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 23%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$27.88

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 52¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,104

Combined PnL-$132.86

Over10 traders

Total Value$503.49

Total Shares1,053

Combined PnL+$104.98

Under — 23%Over — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 62.1¢	$634.38	$527.57	-$106.81	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.7¢	$478.48	$454.48	-$24	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 34¢	$252.96	$364.56	+$111.6	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
nigiri99	Underavg 52¢	$106.6	$104.55	-$2.05	52% 235-217 (452)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$88.8	$84.18	-$4.63	39% 233-367 (600)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 49.4¢	$12.62	$12.52	-$0.1	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$14.1	$12	-$2.1	31% 441-967 (1408)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$10.28	$10.39	+$0.11	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$6.81	$6.79	-$0.02	55% 843-701 (1544)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$4.27	$4.16	-$0.1	59% 3484-2373 (5857)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$3.37	$3.95	+$0.58	36% 410-719 (1129)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 44.3¢	$2.76	$2.49	-$0.27	52% 597-541 (1138)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.45	-$0.1	57% 4155-3181 (7336)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$634.38

Value

$527.57

PnL

-$106.81

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$478.48

Value

$454.48

PnL

-$24

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$252.96

Value

$364.56

PnL

+$111.6

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$106.6

Value

$104.55

PnL

-$2.05

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.8

Value

$84.18

PnL

-$4.63

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.62

Value

$12.52

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.1

Value

$12

PnL

-$2.1

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.28

Value

$10.39

PnL

+$0.11

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.79

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

3484-2373 (5857)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.58

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.1

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.