Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 45¢ · $378 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$378.27
-$7.46
45.9¢ → 44.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $138.46 | $129.81 | -$8.65 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 44.7¢ | $119.79 | $120.62 | +$0.83 | 52% 497-453 (950) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $98.32 | $98.32 | +$0 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $21.06 | $21.06 | -$0 | 39% 395-620 (1015) |
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $4.95 | $5.25 | +$0.29 | 48% 101-110 (211) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $3.14 | $3.21 | +$0.07 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
Invested
$138.46
Value
$129.81
PnL
-$8.65
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$119.79
Value
$120.62
PnL
+$0.83
Record
52%
497-453 (950)
Invested
$98.32
Value
$98.32
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$21.06
Value
$21.06
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
395-620 (1015)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$0.29
Record
48%
101-110 (211)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$3.14
Value
$3.21
PnL
+$0.07
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.