Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 60¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$410.58

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 60¢

+19% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 19 top traders (63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares12,229

Combined PnL+$299.53

Under7 traders

Total Value$749.74

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL+$111.05

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (18 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$88.24	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 49¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$80.93	48% 540-590 (1130)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Overavg 50¢	$989.01	$1.3K	+$355.49	47% 17-19 (36)
NE neymar1	Overavg 51¢	$793.05	$933	+$139.95	— 2-6 (8)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 39.1¢	$233.67	$317.14	+$83.47	53% 305-275 (580)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 61¢	$397.14	$314.35	-$82.79	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$275.24	$298.39	+$23.15	52% 597-541 (1138)
IC ic4cream	Overavg 51¢	$117.3	$172.5	+$55.2	3% 12-449 (461)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$79	$85.45	+$6.45	32% 444-952 (1396)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 51¢	$89.11	$84.08	-$5.03	36% 410-719 (1129)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 46¢	$69	$60	-$9	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Overavg 51¢	$24.88	$36.59	+$11.71	66% 122-63 (185)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$21.77	$22.72	+$0.95	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$24	$20	-$4	31% 441-967 (1408)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 50.9¢	$14.28	$16.83	+$2.55	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 61¢	$17.08	$16.8	-$0.28	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 51¢	$5.1	$6	+$0.9	54% 135-114 (249)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.92	$5.32	+$0.4	31% 438-969 (1407)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$24.13	$0.72	+$0.62	55% 729-596 (1325)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$2,298.8

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$88.24

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$1,982.76

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$80.93

Record

48%

540-590 (1130)

0x0A77exmm

Over

Invested

$989.01

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$355.49

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

neymar1

Over

Invested

$793.05

Value

$933

PnL

+$139.95

Record

—

2-6 (8)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$233.67

Value

$317.14

PnL

+$83.47

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$397.14

Value

$314.35

PnL

-$82.79

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$275.24

Value

$298.39

PnL

+$23.15

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$117.3

Value

$172.5

PnL

+$55.2

Record

12-449 (461)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79

Value

$85.45

PnL

+$6.45

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$89.11

Value

$84.08

PnL

-$5.03

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$69

Value

$60

PnL

-$9

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

thatsabing0<$100

Over

Invested

$24.88

Value

$36.59

PnL

+$11.71

Record

66%

122-63 (185)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.77

Value

$22.72

PnL

+$0.95

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24

Value

$20

PnL

-$4

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$14.28

Value

$16.83

PnL

+$2.55

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$17.08

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$5.1

Value

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

135-114 (249)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.4

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.13

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.62

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 19 top traders (63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (18 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.