Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5

11 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 64¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 12

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 63.5¢

+30% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 26 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$32.0K

Total Shares61,232

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Under15 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares25,460

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Overavg 49¢	$15.1K	$14.9K	-$153.93	49% 261-275 (536)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 48¢	$9.8K	$11.8K	+$2.0K	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Underavg 52¢	$5.2K	$3.6K	$-1.6K	52% 86-78 (164)
AC AckbarCTR	Underavg 52¢	$5.2K	$3.6K	$-1.6K	— 7-6 (13)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 49¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$31.73	49% 497-523 (1020)
TO tomb2456	Overavg 49¢	$980	$970	-$10	50% 22-22 (44)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 50.6¢	$834.95	$847.62	+$12.67	46% 200-233 (433)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 40.8¢	$887.21	$733.25	-$74.31	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.8¢	$494.93	$442.75	-$52.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.8¢	$282.85	$290.5	-$22.13
TA takeormake	Overavg 50.1¢	$515	$652.15	+$137.14	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.9¢	$750.73	$571.96	-$178.78	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 50.3¢	$785.61	$531.95	-$110.57	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$438.2	$437.99	-$0.21	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.6¢	$246.67	$251.11	+$4.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.7¢	$191.53	$186.88	-$4.65
VE VenusianARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$418.83	$390.8	+$40.96	31% 444-971 (1415)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$198.84	$257.68	+$58.84
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$160.47	$133.12	-$17.88
LI Limousin	Overavg 49¢	$264.6	$342.9	+$78.3	31% 438-969 (1407)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 49¢	$132.56	$171.79	+$39.23	32% 444-952 (1396)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 46¢	$132.56	$105.18	-$27.38	31% 441-967 (1408)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 49.8¢	$288.98	$99.67	+$19.79	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.8¢	$57.25	$73.03	+$16.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$33.63	$26.65	+$3.73
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$86.4	$87.6	+$1.2	53% 305-275 (580)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$216.23	$77.17	+$0.92	49% 786-829 (1615)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$70.56	$71.54	+$0.98	39% 233-367 (600)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$20.67	$16.38	-$4.29	48% 327-356 (683)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$20.67	$14.24	-$6.44	33% 247-507 (754)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 48¢	$14.4	$13.5	-$0.9	67% 1681-834 (2515)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$11.21	$10.24	-$0.97	55% 729-596 (1325)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 51.9¢	$4.82	$5.38	+$0.56	36% 410-719 (1129)

Pwaddler

Over

Invested

$15,084.65

Value

$14.9K

PnL

-$153.93

Record

49%

261-275 (536)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$9,785.52

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Under

Invested

$5,200

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

52%

86-78 (164)

AckbarCTR

Under

Invested

$5,200

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

—

7-6 (13)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$3,109.28

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$31.73

Record

49%

497-523 (1020)

tomb2456

Over

Invested

$980

Value

$970

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

22-22 (44)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$834.95

Value

$847.62

PnL

+$12.67

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$887.21

Value

$733.25

PnL

-$74.31

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Under$494.9340.8¢-$52.18

Over$282.8561.8¢-$22.13

takeormake

Over

Invested

$515

Value

$652.15

PnL

+$137.14

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$750.73

Value

$571.96

PnL

-$178.78

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$785.61

Value

$531.95

PnL

-$110.57

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$438.2

Value

$437.99

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Under$246.6749.6¢+$4.43

Over$191.5350.7¢-$4.65

VenusianARB<$100

Over

Invested

$418.83

Value

$390.8

PnL

+$40.96

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

Both legs:

Over$198.8449¢+$58.84

Under$160.4744¢-$17.88

Limousin

Over

Invested

$264.6

Value

$342.9

PnL

+$78.3

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$132.56

Value

$171.79

PnL

+$39.23

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$132.56

Value

$105.18

PnL

-$27.38

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$288.98

Value

$99.67

PnL

+$19.79

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Both legs:

Over$57.2549.8¢+$16.06

Under$33.6346.1¢+$3.73

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$86.4

Value

$87.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$216.23

Value

$77.17

PnL

+$0.92

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.56

Value

$71.54

PnL

+$0.98

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.67

Value

$16.38

PnL

-$4.29

Record

48%

327-356 (683)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.67

Value

$14.24

PnL

-$6.44

Record

33%

247-507 (754)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$14.4

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$0.9

Record

67%

1681-834 (2515)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.21

Value

$10.24

PnL

-$0.97

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$4.82

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$0.56

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 26 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.