Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 212.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 19¢ · $346 held · ended Nov 12

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$346.4

Combined PnL

$0.35

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 18.5¢

-26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$171.64

Total Shares697

Combined PnL-$1.48

Over2 traders

Total Value$174.75

Total Shares220

Combined PnL+$1.82

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 23.7¢	$104.03	$109.9	+$5.87	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1<$100	Overavg 70.5¢	$96.83	$91.52	+$8.61	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 74.1¢	$90.02	$83.23	-$6.79	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 29.5¢	$28.92	$24.01	-$4.91	49% 786-829 (1615)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$10.08	$14	+$3.92	42% 282-393 (675)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$14.78	$11.19	-$3.58	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$6.56	$6.84	+$0.27	36% 410-719 (1129)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 28.4¢	$8.75	$5.7	-$3.05	55% 843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$104.03

Value

$109.9

PnL

+$5.87

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$96.83

Value

$91.52

PnL

+$8.61

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$90.02

Value

$83.23

PnL

-$6.79

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.92

Value

$24.01

PnL

-$4.91

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.08

Value

$14

PnL

+$3.92

Record

42%

282-393 (675)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.78

Value

$11.19

PnL

-$3.58

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.56

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$0.27

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.75

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$3.05

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.