Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 210.5

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 71¢ · $555 held · ended Nov 12

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 14%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$555.02

Combined PnL

$10.17

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$226.16

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$4.11

Under6 traders

Total Value$208.99

Total Shares685

Combined PnL+$14.28

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 73.7¢	$262.83	$226.16	-$4.11	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 25.4¢	$116.44	$121.27	+$4.83	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 76.2¢	$104.79	$119.87	+$15.08	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 20¢	$52.21	$69.16	+$16.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 76.2¢	$52.58	$50.71	-$1.87
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 24.1¢	$168.97	$36.51	+$2.83	55% 843-701 (1544)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 24.4¢	$52.42	$30.71	+$3.73	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$11.98	$16.7	+$4.73	36% 410-719 (1129)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$3.52	$2.43	-$1.08	31% 444-971 (1415)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$2.12	$1.36	-$0.76	55% 729-596 (1325)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$262.83

Value

$226.16

PnL

-$4.11

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$116.44

Value

$121.27

PnL

+$4.83

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$104.79

Value

$119.87

PnL

+$15.08

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Under$52.2120¢+$16.94

Over$52.5876.2¢-$1.87

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$168.97

Value

$36.51

PnL

+$2.83

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.42

Value

$30.71

PnL

+$3.73

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.98

Value

$16.7

PnL

+$4.73

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.52

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$1.08

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.12

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$0.76

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.