Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 208.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over90¢Under10¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$350.5

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 89.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over90%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,265

Combined PnL+$345.82

Under6 traders

Total Value$574.94

Total Shares2,477

Combined PnL+$4.68

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 76.2¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$271.77	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
fxwd12345	Overavg 86.3¢	$800	$830.01	+$30.01	78% 18-5 (23)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 24.1¢	$394.47	$370.07	-$24.4	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 87.6¢	$287.33	$242.3	-$45.03	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 87.6¢	$165.57	$164.43	-$1.14
└ Under leg	Underavg 20.3¢	$121.76	$77.87	-$43.89
nigiri99	Overavg 74¢	$159.84	$193.32	+$33.48	52% 235-217 (452)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 19.8¢	$191.55	$100.51	+$12.96	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 75.4¢	$56.61	$67.16	+$10.55	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$26.1	$39.15	+$13.05	55% 843-701 (1544)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$27.34	$26.75	-$0.59	46% 200-233 (433)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 18.2¢	$26.37	$23.86	-$2.5	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$8.44	$14.6	+$6.17	36% 410-719 (1129)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,559.65

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$271.77

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$800

Value

$830.01

PnL

+$30.01

Record

78%

18-5 (23)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$394.47

Value

$370.07

PnL

-$24.4

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$287.33

Value

$242.3

PnL

-$45.03

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Over$165.5787.6¢-$1.14

Under$121.7620.3¢-$43.89

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$159.84

Value

$193.32

PnL

+$33.48

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$191.55

Value

$100.51

PnL

+$12.96

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$56.61

Value

$67.16

PnL

+$10.55

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.1

Value

$39.15

PnL

+$13.05

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.34

Value

$26.75

PnL

-$0.59

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.37

Value

$23.86

PnL

-$2.5

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.44

Value

$14.6

PnL

+$6.17

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.