Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$212.47

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 92.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,374

Combined PnL+$118.09

Under7 traders

Total Value$815.06

Total Shares6,134

Combined PnL-$330.56

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 83.9¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	+$50.34	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
SU suntori	Overavg 84¢	$400	$440.48	+$40.48	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 20¢	$696.4	$417.84	-$278.56	52% 235-217 (452)
RN1	Overavg 81¢	$180.63	$206.28	+$25.65	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 14¢	$135.37	$164.79	+$29.42	46% 200-233 (433)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 19.9¢	$114.2	$97.7	-$16.5	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 16¢	$497.05	$73.85	-$23.95	55% 843-701 (1544)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$80	$48	-$32	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 81.8¢	$12.43	$14.06	+$1.63	49% 973-998 (1971)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 20.3¢	$19.31	$11.4	-$7.91	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 20.5¢	$2.54	$1.48	-$1.05	55% 729-596 (1325)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,889.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$50.34

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

suntori

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$440.48

PnL

+$40.48

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$696.4

Value

$417.84

PnL

-$278.56

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

RN1

Over

Invested

$180.63

Value

$206.28

PnL

+$25.65

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$135.37

Value

$164.79

PnL

+$29.42

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$114.2

Value

$97.7

PnL

-$16.5

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$497.05

Value

$73.85

PnL

-$23.95

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$80

Value

$48

PnL

-$32

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$12.43

Value

$14.06

PnL

+$1.63

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.31

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$7.91

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.54

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$1.05

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.