Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$70.9

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 94.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$798.14

Total Shares841

Combined PnL+$68.2

Under4 traders

Total Value$40.99

Total Shares345

Combined PnL+$2.7

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 84.5¢	$584.05	$653.04	+$68.99	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 88¢	$273.95	$243.46	-$30.49	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Over leg	Overavg 88¢	$176	$173	-$3
└ Under leg	Underavg 18.8¢	$97.95	$70.46	-$27.49
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 82¢	$75.44	$81.88	+$6.44	61% 935-598 (1533)
RN1<$100	Overavg 89¢	$65.83	$52.83	-$7.83	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$25.96	$31.87	+$5.9	55% 843-701 (1544)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 89¢	$9.79	$10.4	+$0.61	49% 973-998 (1971)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 10.5¢	$9.97	$7.6	-$2.37	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$1.34	$0.87	-$0.47	55% 729-596 (1325)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$1	$0.65	-$0.35	47% 1681-1866 (3547)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$584.05

Value

$653.04

PnL

+$68.99

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$273.95

Value

$243.46

PnL

-$30.49

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Over$17688¢-$3

Under$97.9518.8¢-$27.49

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$75.44

Value

$81.88

PnL

+$6.44

Record

61%

935-598 (1533)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$65.83

Value

$52.83

PnL

-$7.83

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.96

Value

$31.87

PnL

+$5.9

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$9.79

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.61

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.97

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$2.37

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.34

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$0.47

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.35

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.