Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 202.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over96¢Under4¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$58.73

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 96¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,172

Combined PnL+$40.95

Under5 traders

Total Value$248.46

Total Shares2,071

Combined PnL+$17.77

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 88.5¢	$986.1	$1.0K	+$38.63	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 11.1¢	$72.08	$78	+$5.92	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$59.27	$71.12	+$11.85	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$57.22	$57.22	-$0	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 88¢	$51.04	$53.36	+$2.32	49% 973-998 (1971)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$31.56	$31.56	-$0	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$10.56	$10.56	-$0	49% 786-829 (1615)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$986.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$38.63

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.08

Value

$78

PnL

+$5.92

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.27

Value

$71.12

PnL

+$11.85

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.22

Value

$57.22

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$51.04

Value

$53.36

PnL

+$2.32

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.56

Value

$31.56

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.56

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.