Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 196.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 95¢ · $856 held · ended Nov 12

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

Total Value

$856.11

Combined PnL

-$11.59

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$816.47

Total Shares850

Combined PnL+$8.78

Under7 traders

Total Value$39.64

Total Shares1,204

Combined PnL-$20.37

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 95¢	$807.69	$816.47	+$8.78	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$30	$21.3	-$8.7	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$12.65	$8.98	-$3.67	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 6.5¢	$13.6	$4.41	-$9.19	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 2.1¢	$1.57	$2.65	+$1.08	55% 843-701 (1544)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 2.3¢	$1.29	$1.96	+$0.67	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$8.65	$0.25	-$0.4	49% 973-998 (1971)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$0.26	$0.09	-$0.17	55% 729-596 (1325)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$807.69

Value

$816.47

PnL

+$8.78

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30

Value

$21.3

PnL

-$8.7

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.65

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$3.67

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.6

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$9.19

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.57

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$1.08

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.67

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.65

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.17

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.