Spread: Rockets (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (50%) · Rockets at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Rockets85¢Warriors15¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$15.01

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 84.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets85%

Warriors16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,510

Combined PnL+$83.65

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$136.6

Total Shares671

Combined PnL-$68.64

Rockets — 50%Warriors — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rocketsavg 79¢	$780.75	$593.64	+$4.76	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Rocketsavg 69.9¢	$393.28	$467.29	+$74.01	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
SU suntori	Rocketsavg 87¢	$143.63	$146.93	+$3.3	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 27.6¢	$97.14	$77.44	-$19.7	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 34¢	$98.6	$49.3	-$49.3	53% 305-275 (580)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 66¢	$33	$18.58	+$1.58	49% 786-829 (1615)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 33¢	$7.26	$7.48	+$0.22	38% 99-159 (258)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 32¢	$2.24	$2.38	+$0.14	47% 1681-1866 (3547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rockets

Invested

$780.75

Value

$593.64

PnL

+$4.76

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Rockets

Invested

$393.28

Value

$467.29

PnL

+$74.01

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

suntori

Rockets

Invested

$143.63

Value

$146.93

PnL

+$3.3

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$97.14

Value

$77.44

PnL

-$19.7

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$98.6

Value

$49.3

PnL

-$49.3

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$33

Value

$18.58

PnL

+$1.58

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$7.26

Value

$7.48

PnL

+$0.22

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.