Spread: Rockets (-15.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (36%) · Warriors at 83¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 12

Rockets17¢Warriors83¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$2.49

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 83¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rockets17%

Warriors83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares10,978

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Rockets7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares10,620

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Warriors — 36%Rockets — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Warriorsavg 54¢	$5.4K	$6.7K	+$1.3K	17% 20-98 (118)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Rocketsavg 46¢	$4.7K	$3.4K	$-1.3K	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
FL Flaznorp	Warriorsavg 77.4¢	$677.86	$722.22	+$44.36	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 73.3¢	$338.87	$346.46	+$7.59	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 73.3¢	$271.2	$268.25	-$2.95
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 23.8¢	$67.67	$78.21	+$10.54
RN1ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 67.1¢	$230.32	$199.96	+$23.1	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 67.1¢	$125.54	$142.12	+$16.58
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 26¢	$62.66	$57.84	+$6.52
TA takeormake<$100	Warriorsavg 71.7¢	$58.23	$59.15	+$0.92	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 19¢	$41.23	$33.64	-$7.59	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Warriorsavg 54¢	$17.82	$22.11	+$4.29	39% 233-367 (600)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 26.1¢	$11.68	$14.08	+$2.4	55% 843-701 (1544)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 22¢	$8.14	$12.21	+$4.07	32% 444-952 (1396)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 32.2¢	$91.18	$11.42	-$13.08	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 25.5¢	$2.55	$3.15	+$0.6	49% 973-998 (1971)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 24¢	$2.89	$2.95	+$0.06	40% 438-657 (1095)

luckycat888888

Warriors

Invested

$5,400

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

17%

20-98 (118)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Rockets

Invested

$4,718.7

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Flaznorp

Warriors

Invested

$677.86

Value

$722.22

PnL

+$44.36

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$338.87

Value

$346.46

PnL

+$7.59

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Warriors$271.273.3¢-$2.95

Rockets$67.6723.8¢+$10.54

RN1ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$230.32

Value

$199.96

PnL

+$23.1

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Warriors$125.5467.1¢+$16.58

Rockets$62.6626¢+$6.52

takeormake<$100

Warriors

Invested

$58.23

Value

$59.15

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$41.23

Value

$33.64

PnL

-$7.59

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

justaluckydude<$100

Warriors

Invested

$17.82

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$4.29

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$11.68

Value

$14.08

PnL

+$2.4

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$8.14

Value

$12.21

PnL

+$4.07

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$91.18

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$13.08

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

sentrioCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.06

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.