Spread: Rockets (-13.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (47%) · Warriors at 75¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12

Rockets26¢Warriors74¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$146.86

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 74.5¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets26%

Warriors75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,508

Combined PnL+$202.51

Rockets8 traders

Total Value$856

Total Shares2,816

Combined PnL-$55.65

Warriors — 47%Rockets — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+39 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Warriorsavg 61.6¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	+$390.89	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 61.6¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$497.84
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 29.9¢	$725.07	$618.11	-$106.95
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 38.6¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$177.05	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 38.6¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$303.23
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 54.3¢	$518.29	$644.48	+$126.18
JU justaluckydude	Warriorsavg 71¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$61.46	39% 233-367 (600)
nigiri99	Warriorsavg 73¢	$697.83	$587.94	-$109.89	52% 235-217 (452)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Warriorsavg 47¢	$305.03	$495.34	+$190.31	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
TA takeormakeCTR	Rocketsavg 34¢	$438.05	$405.4	-$32.65	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
FE ferdinand2	Warriorsavg 59.6¢	$324.35	$391.46	+$67.11	49% 973-998 (1971)
RN1ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 37.8¢	$462.75	$331.42	+$60.47	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 37.8¢	$230	$258.4	+$28.4
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 47.5¢	$60.32	$73.02	+$32.07
CA CandleHammerDrums	Warriorsavg 47¢	$268.5	$228.97	+$110.47	47% 279-315 (594)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocketsavg 32.8¢	$334.37	$182.59	-$9.25	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
CI cigarettesCTR	Rocketsavg 36.8¢	$184	$152.5	-$31.5	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
BI biying88888	Warriorsavg 57¢	$114	$149	+$35	38% 128-207 (335)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Warriorsavg 67.3¢	$2.8K	$86.94	-$151.96	55% 843-701 (1544)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 27¢	$65.61	$64.4	-$1.21	44% 143-184 (327)
PA Pan9XCTR	Rocketsavg 33.3¢	$135.25	$46	+$20.07	49% 786-829 (1615)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 31.5¢	$3.15	$2.65	-$0.5	45% 304-377 (681)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 30¢	$1.71	$1.31	-$0.4	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.15	-$0.2	31% 441-967 (1408)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$3,157.6

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$390.89

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Warriors$1,799.561.6¢+$497.84

Rockets$725.0729.9¢-$106.95

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2,442.17

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$177.05

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Rockets$1,923.8838.6¢-$303.23

Warriors$518.2954.3¢+$126.18

justaluckydude

Warriors

Invested

$1,239.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$61.46

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

nigiri99

Warriors

Invested

$697.83

Value

$587.94

PnL

-$109.89

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Warriors

Invested

$305.03

Value

$495.34

PnL

+$190.31

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

takeormakeCTR

Rockets

Invested

$438.05

Value

$405.4

PnL

-$32.65

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

ferdinand2

Warriors

Invested

$324.35

Value

$391.46

PnL

+$67.11

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

RN1ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$462.75

Value

$331.42

PnL

+$60.47

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Rockets$23037.8¢+$28.4

Warriors$60.3247.5¢+$32.07

CandleHammerDrums

Warriors

Invested

$268.5

Value

$228.97

PnL

+$110.47

Record

47%

279-315 (594)

38791873984189CTR

Rockets

Invested

$334.37

Value

$182.59

PnL

-$9.25

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

cigarettesCTR

Rockets

Invested

$184

Value

$152.5

PnL

-$31.5

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

biying88888

Warriors

Invested

$114

Value

$149

PnL

+$35

Record

38%

128-207 (335)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Warriors

Invested

$2,767.47

Value

$86.94

PnL

-$151.96

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$65.61

Value

$64.4

PnL

-$1.21

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

Pan9XCTR

Rockets

Invested

$135.25

Value

$46

PnL

+$20.07

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

lryyyCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.5

Record

45%

304-377 (681)

suntoriCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.2

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+39 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.