Spread: Warriors (-6.5)

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (100%) · Rockets at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Warriors7¢Rockets93¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 100%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$74.58

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 93¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors7%

Rockets93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,340

Combined PnL+$74.58

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Rocketsavg 82¢	$626.82	$672.69	+$45.87	61% 935-598 (1533)
FL Flaznorp	Rocketsavg 81.8¢	$371.25	$399.49	+$28.24	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rocketsavg 92¢	$391	$374	-$17	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884	Rocketsavg 86.5¢	$346	$352	+$6	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1	Rocketsavg 90.7¢	$147.25	$150.18	+$2.93	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
SE sentrio<$100	Rocketsavg 82¢	$46.73	$50.15	+$3.42	40% 438-657 (1095)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 81¢	$28.35	$30.8	+$2.45	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Rocketsavg 82¢	$22.14	$23.76	+$1.62	49% 973-998 (1971)
38 38791873984189<$100	Rocketsavg 81¢	$12.25	$13.31	+$1.06	47% 1681-1866 (3547)

darkumbreon88

Rockets

Invested

$626.82

Value

$672.69

PnL

+$45.87

Record

61%

935-598 (1533)

Flaznorp

Rockets

Invested

$371.25

Value

$399.49

PnL

+$28.24

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rockets

Invested

$391

Value

$374

PnL

-$17

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884

Rockets

Invested

$346

Value

$352

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1

Rockets

Invested

$147.25

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$2.93

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

sentrio<$100

Rockets

Invested

$46.73

Value

$50.15

PnL

+$3.42

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$28.35

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$2.45

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2<$100

Rockets

Invested

$22.14

Value

$23.76

PnL

+$1.62

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

38791873984189<$100

Rockets

Invested

$12.25

Value

$13.31

PnL

+$1.06

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.