Spread: Warriors (-4.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (70%) · Rockets at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Warriors9¢Rockets91¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 70%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$82.55

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 91.5¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors9%

Rockets92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,813

Combined PnL+$101.69

Warriors3 traders

Total Value$66.23

Total Shares634

Combined PnL-$19.14

Rockets — 70%Warriors — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Rocketsavg 85.3¢	$485.29	$509.44	+$24.16	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rocketsavg 84.6¢	$357.73	$374.11	+$16.39	55% 843-701 (1544)
38 38791873984189	Rocketsavg 77.6¢	$204.16	$232.76	+$28.59	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
AN Anon455	Rocketsavg 89¢	$202.6	$201.46	-$1.14	46% 200-233 (433)
65 6512395314597884	Rocketsavg 78¢	$156	$177	+$21	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9X	Rocketsavg 78.9¢	$99.39	$111.43	+$12.04	49% 786-829 (1615)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 13.4¢	$83.12	$64.91	-$18.21	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
SE sentrio<$100	Rocketsavg 77¢	$3.85	$4.5	+$0.65	40% 438-657 (1095)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 11¢	$1.21	$0.94	-$0.27	49% 973-998 (1971)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 23¢	$1.04	$0.38	-$0.66	47% 1320-1474 (2794)

RN1

Rockets

Invested

$485.29

Value

$509.44

PnL

+$24.16

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rockets

Invested

$357.73

Value

$374.11

PnL

+$16.39

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

38791873984189

Rockets

Invested

$204.16

Value

$232.76

PnL

+$28.59

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Anon455

Rockets

Invested

$202.6

Value

$201.46

PnL

-$1.14

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

6512395314597884

Rockets

Invested

$156

Value

$177

PnL

+$21

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9X

Rockets

Invested

$99.39

Value

$111.43

PnL

+$12.04

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$83.12

Value

$64.91

PnL

-$18.21

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

sentrio<$100

Rockets

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.65

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1.21

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

suntoriCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.66

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.