Spread: Warriors (-2.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (67%) · Rockets at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Warriors13¢Rockets87¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$72.04

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 87.5¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Warriors13%

Rockets88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,480

Combined PnL+$100.28

Warriors2 traders

Total Value$73.88

Total Shares412

Combined PnL-$28.24

Rockets — 67%Warriors — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Rocketsavg 82.5¢	$591.73	$623.73	+$32	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rocketsavg 76.3¢	$559.16	$618.94	+$59.79	55% 843-701 (1544)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Rocketsavg 88.9¢	$503.63	$236.04	-$77.03	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 88.9¢	$167.09	$161.63	-$34.93
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 21.9¢	$116.51	$74.41	-$42.1
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 12.5¢	$134.15	$163.83	+$29.68	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 12.5¢	$100.01	$124.12	+$24.11
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 72.6¢	$34.14	$39.71	+$5.57
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 26¢	$42.12	$38.88	-$3.24	69% 2589-1187 (3776)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 24¢	$60	$35	-$25	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 77.5¢	$46.06	$18.37	+$9.31	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Rocketsavg 90¢	$18.27	$17.46	-$0.81	49% 973-998 (1971)

RN1

Rockets

Invested

$591.73

Value

$623.73

PnL

+$32

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rockets

Invested

$559.16

Value

$618.94

PnL

+$59.79

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$503.63

Value

$236.04

PnL

-$77.03

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Rockets$167.0988.9¢-$34.93

Warriors$116.5121.9¢-$42.1

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$134.15

Value

$163.83

PnL

+$29.68

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Warriors$100.0112.5¢+$24.11

Rockets$34.1472.6¢+$5.57

purplegattoCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$42.12

Value

$38.88

PnL

-$3.24

Record

69%

2589-1187 (3776)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$60

Value

$35

PnL

-$25

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$46.06

Value

$18.37

PnL

+$9.31

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2<$100

Rockets

Invested

$18.27

Value

$17.46

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.