Spread: Warriors (-12.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (67%) · Rockets at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
6
Rockets 67%
$2.0K
-$6.89
97.1¢ → 99.6¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Rocketsavg 96¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$24.67 | 55% 843-701 (1544) |
65 6512395314597884 | Rocketsavg 98.7¢ | $648.15 | $650.76 | +$2.61 | 50% 3334-3292 (6626) |
38 38791873984189 | Rocketsavg 97.2¢ | $205.32 | $208.1 | +$2.78 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Rocketsavg 98.1¢ | $72.21 | $72.54 | +$0.33 | 49% 786-829 (1615) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 3.1¢ | $46.73 | $12.2 | -$34.53 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 2¢ | $4.56 | $1.81 | -$2.75 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
Invested
$1,008
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$24.67
Record
55%
843-701 (1544)
Invested
$648.15
Value
$650.76
PnL
+$2.61
Record
50%
3334-3292 (6626)
Invested
$205.32
Value
$208.1
PnL
+$2.78
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$72.21
Value
$72.54
PnL
+$0.33
Record
49%
786-829 (1615)
Invested
$46.73
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$34.53
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$4.56
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$2.75
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.