Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 61¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$100.4

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 60.5¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,269

Combined PnL+$217.21

Under3 traders

Total Value$568.3

Total Shares1,357

Combined PnL-$116.81

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 44¢	$1.4K	$735.52	+$36.64	54% 1122-947 (2069)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 46¢	$496.65	$677.2	+$180.55	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 42.5¢	$648.97	$583.48	-$65.5	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.5¢	$492.67	$405.64	-$87.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.1¢	$156.3	$177.83	+$21.53
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 56¢	$535.08	$410.87	-$124.22	22% 31-107 (138)
RN1	Overavg 65¢	$165.1	$165.1	-$0	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$131.2	$142.55	+$11.35	42% 331-451 (782)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$76.32	$103.35	+$27.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$54.88	$39.2	-$15.68
TH thatsabing0CTR	Underavg 35¢	$125.11	$141.2	+$16.09	64% 152-86 (238)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$24.92	$16.24	-$8.68	39% 112-173 (285)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.51	+$0.01	52% 411-380 (791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,398.78

Value

$735.52

PnL

+$36.64

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$496.65

Value

$677.2

PnL

+$180.55

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$648.97

Value

$583.48

PnL

-$65.5

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Under$492.6742.5¢-$87.03

Over$156.357.1¢+$21.53

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$535.08

Value

$410.87

PnL

-$124.22

Record

22%

31-107 (138)

RN1

Over

Invested

$165.1

Value

$165.1

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$131.2

Value

$142.55

PnL

+$11.35

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

Both legs:

Over$76.3248¢+$27.03

Under$54.8849¢-$15.68

thatsabing0CTR

Under

Invested

$125.11

Value

$141.2

PnL

+$16.09

Record

64%

152-86 (238)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.92

Value

$16.24

PnL

-$8.68

Record

39%

112-173 (285)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.