Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 220.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 52¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 13

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$13.4K

Combined PnL

$49.36

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares15,906

Combined PnL+$88.7

Under7 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares10,772

Combined PnL-$39.34

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 51.2¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$35.7	52% 353-330 (683)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$48.28	30% 34-78 (112)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$39.26	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 51¢	$861.73	$870.18	+$8.45	48% 116-124 (240)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 48¢	$299.9	$303.03	+$3.12	19% 204-895 (1099)
NM NM-P	Overavg 50¢	$175	$180.25	+$5.25	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$130	$121.25	+$1.45	52% 784-728 (1512)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$230.04	$86.97	+$2.92	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$31.13	$19.03	+$0.58	54% 997-856 (1853)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$33.32	$13.73	+$0.77	49% 1083-1137 (2220)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.7	+$0.1	54% 281-239 (520)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 50¢	$1	$1.04	+$0.04	38% 494-814 (1308)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$5,756.5

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$35.7

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,731.43

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$48.28

Record

30%

34-78 (112)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,308.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$39.26

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$861.73

Value

$870.18

PnL

+$8.45

Record

48%

116-124 (240)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$299.9

Value

$303.03

PnL

+$3.12

Record

19%

204-895 (1099)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$180.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$130

Value

$121.25

PnL

+$1.45

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$230.04

Value

$86.97

PnL

+$2.92

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.13

Value

$19.03

PnL

+$0.58

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.32

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$0.77

Record

49%

1083-1137 (2220)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

281-239 (520)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

38%

494-814 (1308)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.