Spread: Wizards (-4.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (75%) · Pistons at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Wizards8¢Pistons92¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$46.67

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 92.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wizards8%

Pistons93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,443

Combined PnL+$129.25

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$67.54

Total Shares925

Combined PnL-$82.58

Pistons — 75%Wizards — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (10 on Pistons) disagree here.

ctrPistons 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Pistonsavg 83.6¢	$881.98	$994.93	+$112.95	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Wizardsavg 12.4¢	$217.95	$159.94	-$37.02	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 91¢	$98.3	$99.92	+$2.29
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 12.4¢	$99.33	$60.02	-$39.31
65 6512395314597884	Pistonsavg 87.5¢	$129.14	$135.34	+$6.2	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
38 38791873984189	Pistonsavg 81¢	$116.42	$122.17	+$5.75	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
TA takeormake<$100	Pistonsavg 85¢	$71.37	$75.15	+$3.78	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
RN1CTR	Wizardsavg 16¢	$133.92	$62.59	-$71.33	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 81¢	$21.32	$22.37	+$1.05	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
nigiri99<$100	Pistonsavg 89¢	$10.68	$10.2	-$0.48	52% 399-371 (770)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 18¢	$16.2	$4.95	-$11.25	63% 405-236 (641)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Pistons

Invested

$881.98

Value

$994.93

PnL

+$112.95

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$217.95

Value

$159.94

PnL

-$37.02

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Pistons$98.391¢+$2.29

Wizards$99.3312.4¢-$39.31

6512395314597884

Pistons

Invested

$129.14

Value

$135.34

PnL

+$6.2

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

38791873984189

Pistons

Invested

$116.42

Value

$122.17

PnL

+$5.75

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

takeormake<$100

Pistons

Invested

$71.37

Value

$75.15

PnL

+$3.78

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

RN1CTR

Wizards

Invested

$133.92

Value

$62.59

PnL

-$71.33

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$21.32

Value

$22.37

PnL

+$1.05

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

nigiri99<$100

Pistons

Invested

$10.68

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$16.2

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$11.25

Record

63%

405-236 (641)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (10 on Pistons) disagree here.

ctrPistons 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.