Spread: Wizards (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (50%) · Pistons at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Wizards13¢Pistons87¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$52.17

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 87.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wizards13%

Pistons88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,498

Combined PnL+$163.66

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$361.97

Total Shares2,633

Combined PnL-$111.49

Pistons — 50%Wizards — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Pistonsavg 84.9¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$79.58	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 90¢	$259.49	$237.96	-$21.52	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 90¢	$138.6	$134.75	-$3.85
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 14.6¢	$120.89	$103.21	-$17.67
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Pistonsavg 81.5¢	$1.2K	$237.53	+$72.54	54% 1122-947 (2069)
RN1CTR	Wizardsavg 18.3¢	$258.71	$176.62	-$82.08	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
TA takeormakeCTR	Wizardsavg 12.7¢	$152.31	$146.37	-$1.9	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
38 38791873984189	Pistonsavg 78.2¢	$92.85	$103.34	+$10.49	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 27¢	$53.55	$25.78	-$27.77	52% 411-380 (791)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Pistonsavg 82.3¢	$16.45	$17.5	+$1.05	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 16.4¢	$56.16	$13.19	+$0.27	49% 1103-1157 (2260)

Flaznorp

Pistons

Invested

$2,628.27

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$79.58

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$259.49

Value

$237.96

PnL

-$21.52

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Pistons$138.690¢-$3.85

Wizards$120.8914.6¢-$17.67

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Pistons

Invested

$1,163.98

Value

$237.53

PnL

+$72.54

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

RN1CTR

Wizards

Invested

$258.71

Value

$176.62

PnL

-$82.08

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

takeormakeCTR

Wizards

Invested

$152.31

Value

$146.37

PnL

-$1.9

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

38791873984189

Pistons

Invested

$92.85

Value

$103.34

PnL

+$10.49

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$53.55

Value

$25.78

PnL

-$27.77

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

ferdinand2<$100

Pistons

Invested

$16.45

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$1.05

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$56.16

Value

$13.19

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.