Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Pistons (56%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-5.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (44%) · Wizards at 45¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons56¢Wizards44¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$12.88

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 44.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons56%

Wizards45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,660

Combined PnL-$59.74

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,025

Combined PnL+$46.86

Wizards — 44%Pistons — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Wizardsavg 46.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$42.67	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Pistonsavg 56¢	$447.99	$467.99	+$20	42% 16-22 (38)
FL Flaznorp	Pistonsavg 51.8¢	$384.92	$419.66	+$34.74	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Pistonsavg 50.8¢	$384.18	$399.82	+$15.64	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 50.8¢	$224.49	$243.29	+$18.8
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 45.9¢	$159.69	$156.53	-$3.16
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Pistonsavg 53.5¢	$229.5	$237.75	+$8.25	48% 367-391 (758)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 53.5¢	$160.5	$175.5	+$15
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 46¢	$69	$62.25	-$6.75
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 48¢	$171.79	$178.54	+$6.76	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 48¢	$96	$111	+$15
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 49.9¢	$75.79	$67.54	-$8.24
TA takeormake	Pistonsavg 59.9¢	$174.88	$162.06	-$12.82	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Wizardsavg 52.1¢	$189.66	$158.34	-$31.32	42% 331-451 (782)
38 38791873984189<$100	Pistonsavg 47.7¢	$61.06	$62.72	+$1.66	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 49.6¢	$56.03	$46.63	+$3.28	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 33¢	$9.9	$10.35	+$0.45	33% 620-1253 (1873)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Wizardsavg 38.1¢	$125.8	$1.19	+$13.8	54% 1122-947 (2069)

RN1CTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,050.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$42.67

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Pistons

Invested

$447.99

Value

$467.99

PnL

+$20

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

Flaznorp

Pistons

Invested

$384.92

Value

$419.66

PnL

+$34.74

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$384.18

Value

$399.82

PnL

+$15.64

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

Both legs:

Pistons$224.4950.8¢+$18.8

Wizards$159.6945.9¢-$3.16

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$229.5

Value

$237.75

PnL

+$8.25

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

Both legs:

Pistons$160.553.5¢+$15

Wizards$6946¢-$6.75

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$171.79

Value

$178.54

PnL

+$6.76

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

Both legs:

Pistons$9648¢+$15

Wizards$75.7949.9¢-$8.24

takeormake

Pistons

Invested

$174.88

Value

$162.06

PnL

-$12.82

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

justaluckydudeCTR

Wizards

Invested

$189.66

Value

$158.34

PnL

-$31.32

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

38791873984189<$100

Pistons

Invested

$61.06

Value

$62.72

PnL

+$1.66

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$56.03

Value

$46.63

PnL

+$3.28

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

LimousinCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

33%

620-1253 (1873)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Wizards

Invested

$125.8

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$13.8

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.