Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Pistons (60%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (70%) · Wizards at 41¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons60¢Wizards40¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$1.83

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 40.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons60%

Wizards41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$531.25

Total Shares1,254

Combined PnL-$3.76

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$227.53

Total Shares380

Combined PnL+$5.6

Wizards — 70%Pistons — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pistonsavg 56.3¢	$481.59	$470.79	+$75.04	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 56.3¢	$304.53	$321.89	+$17.36
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 29.5¢	$108.56	$148.9	+$57.68
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 49.9¢	$376.54	$345.97	-$30.57	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 49.9¢	$262.3	$212.69	-$49.61
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51¢	$114.24	$133.28	+$19.04
RN1CTR	Wizardsavg 41.8¢	$213.2	$206.78	-$6.42	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
TA takeormake	Pistonsavg 63.5¢	$160.6	$150.54	-$10.06	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Wizardsavg 49¢	$162.19	$134.06	-$28.13	42% 331-451 (782)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Wizardsavg 46.5¢	$95.94	$113.52	+$17.57	48% 367-391 (758)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Pistonsavg 45.4¢	$55.03	$71.05	+$16.01	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 32.6¢	$39.44	$49.56	+$10.12	54% 1122-947 (2069)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 28¢	$15.76	$18.01	+$2.25	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 29¢	$8.12	$8.96	+$0.84	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Pistonsavg 63¢	$6.3	$5.95	-$0.35	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 26¢	$0.35	$0.36	+$0.01	49% 303-310 (613)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$481.59

Value

$470.79

PnL

+$75.04

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Pistons$304.5356.3¢+$17.36

Wizards$108.5629.5¢+$57.68

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$376.54

Value

$345.97

PnL

-$30.57

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

Both legs:

Wizards$262.349.9¢-$49.61

Pistons$114.2451¢+$19.04

RN1CTR

Wizards

Invested

$213.2

Value

$206.78

PnL

-$6.42

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

takeormake

Pistons

Invested

$160.6

Value

$150.54

PnL

-$10.06

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

justaluckydudeCTR

Wizards

Invested

$162.19

Value

$134.06

PnL

-$28.13

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Wizards

Invested

$95.94

Value

$113.52

PnL

+$17.57

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Pistons

Invested

$55.03

Value

$71.05

PnL

+$16.01

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$39.44

Value

$49.56

PnL

+$10.12

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$15.76

Value

$18.01

PnL

+$2.25

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$8.12

Value

$8.96

PnL

+$0.84

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ferdinand2<$100

Pistons

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Anon455CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.