Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (63%) · Pistons at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons70¢Wizards30¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$10.44

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 69.5¢

-9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons70%

Wizards31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,434

Combined PnL-$38.07

Wizards3 traders

Total Value$489.83

Total Shares1,607

Combined PnL+$48.51

Pistons — 63%Wizards — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Pistonsavg 78¢	$812.47	$782.91	-$29.56	54% 1122-947 (2069)
RN1ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 62.3¢	$661.86	$643.69	-$18.17	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 62.3¢	$398.7	$508.8	+$110.1
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 40¢	$263.16	$134.89	-$128.27
FL FlaznorpCTR	Wizardsavg 27.2¢	$408.31	$458.1	+$49.79	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 76¢	$506.8	$422.89	-$83.91	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 76¢	$315.29	$329.81	+$14.52
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 42.2¢	$191.52	$93.09	-$98.43
TA takeormake	Pistonsavg 73.3¢	$248.35	$235.61	-$12.75	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
dips.<$100	Pistonsavg 76¢	$38	$39.75	+$1.75	46% 622-743 (1365)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 30.5¢	$29.56	$30.05	+$0.49	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Pistonsavg 76¢	$22.8	$23.85	+$1.05	63% 405-236 (641)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 69¢	$17.89	$16.09	+$1.43	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 42¢	$3.45	$1.68	-$1.76	50% 306-311 (617)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Pistons

Invested

$812.47

Value

$782.91

PnL

-$29.56

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

RN1ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$661.86

Value

$643.69

PnL

-$18.17

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Both legs:

Pistons$398.762.3¢+$110.1

Wizards$263.1640¢-$128.27

FlaznorpCTR

Wizards

Invested

$408.31

Value

$458.1

PnL

+$49.79

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$506.8

Value

$422.89

PnL

-$83.91

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Pistons$315.2976¢+$14.52

Wizards$191.5242.2¢-$98.43

takeormake

Pistons

Invested

$248.35

Value

$235.61

PnL

-$12.75

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

dips.<$100

Pistons

Invested

$38

Value

$39.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$29.56

Value

$30.05

PnL

+$0.49

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

suitcase6628<$100

Pistons

Invested

$22.8

Value

$23.85

PnL

+$1.05

Record

63%

405-236 (641)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$17.89

Value

$16.09

PnL

+$1.43

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Anon455CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$3.45

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$1.76

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.