Spread: Pistons (-23.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (63%) · Wizards at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons2¢Wizards98¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 63%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$50.45

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 98.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons2%

Wizards99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,772

Combined PnL+$119.97

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$44.31

Total Shares986

Combined PnL-$69.52

Wizards — 63%Pistons — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Wizardsavg 87.5¢	$937.07	$1.0K	+$74.65	54% 1122-947 (2069)
RN1	Wizardsavg 92¢	$335.8	$359.34	+$23.54	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
65 6512395314597884	Wizardsavg 83¢	$166	$189	+$23	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
38 38791873984189	Wizardsavg 84¢	$102.14	$100.93	-$1.22	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 10.5¢	$77.3	$40.43	-$36.88	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wizardsavg 83¢	$12.45	$12.45	+$0	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 15.4¢	$35.53	$3.57	-$31.96	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 5¢	$1	$0.31	-$0.69	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wizards

Invested

$937.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$74.65

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$335.8

Value

$359.34

PnL

+$23.54

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

6512395314597884

Wizards

Invested

$166

Value

$189

PnL

+$23

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

38791873984189

Wizards

Invested

$102.14

Value

$100.93

PnL

-$1.22

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$77.3

Value

$40.43

PnL

-$36.88

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Pan9X<$100

Wizards

Invested

$12.45

Value

$12.45

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$35.53

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$31.96

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.69

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.